Arthur
AL012026 · 2026 · Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 18, 2026. 821 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 3 | 63 mi | +0.15 | 9 kt | -4.60 |
| GFS | 24 h | 3 | 85 mi | -0.14 | 8 kt | -3.60 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 2 | 71 mi | -0.10 | 6 kt | — |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 3 | 56 mi | +0.25 | 14 kt | -7.20 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 3 | 77 mi | -0.04 | 12 kt | -6.40 |
| HMON | 24 h | 3 | 50 mi | +0.32 | 2 kt | -0.40 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 3 | 68 mi | +0.09 | 7 kt | -3.00 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 1 | 66 mi | +0.30 | 15 kt | -2.00 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 3 | 74 mi | — | 2 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 2 | 77 mi | -0.20 | 8 kt | — |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.