Bertha
AL022026 · 2026 · Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 24, 2026. 2721 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 15 | 30 mi | -0.21 | 10 kt | -1.38 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 11 | 61 mi | -0.38 | 14 kt | -2.82 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 7 | 163 mi | -0.76 | 15 kt | -2.60 |
| GFS | 24 h | 15 | 34 mi | -0.38 | 6 kt | -0.52 |
| GFS | 48 h | 11 | 53 mi | -0.21 | 7 kt | -0.83 |
| GFS | 72 h | 7 | 70 mi | +0.24 | 9 kt | -1.17 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 8 | 39 mi | -0.61 | 9 kt | -1.47 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 6 | 79 mi | -0.74 | 14 kt | -2.48 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 4 | 154 mi | -0.69 | 12 kt | -2.27 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 15 | 59 mi | -1.39 | 10 kt | -1.47 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 11 | 71 mi | -0.62 | 8 kt | -1.15 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 7 | 136 mi | -0.46 | 9 kt | -1.13 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 15 | 61 mi | -1.46 | 9 kt | -1.28 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 11 | 70 mi | -0.60 | 8 kt | -1.20 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 7 | 177 mi | -0.90 | 10 kt | -1.33 |
| HMON | 24 h | 15 | 48 mi | -0.93 | 13 kt | -2.17 |
| HMON | 48 h | 11 | 59 mi | -0.35 | 22 kt | -5.15 |
| HMON | 72 h | 7 | 70 mi | +0.25 | 10 kt | -1.27 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 15 | 28 mi | -0.14 | 5 kt | -0.18 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 11 | 46 mi | -0.05 | 9 kt | -1.40 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 7 | 77 mi | +0.17 | 9 kt | -1.13 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 13 | 49 mi | -0.97 | 12 kt | -2.20 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 9 | 130 mi | -1.72 | 14 kt | -5.45 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 5 | 330 mi | -1.76 | 15 kt | -4.07 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 15 | 25 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 11 | 44 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 7 | 93 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 8 | 51 mi | -1.06 | 8 kt | -1.07 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 6 | 62 mi | -0.37 | 10 kt | -1.36 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 4 | 127 mi | -0.39 | 9 kt | -1.40 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.