Cristobal
AL032026 · 2026 · Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026. 406 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 1 | 16 mi | +0.46 | 6 kt | -0.20 |
| GFS | 24 h | 1 | 42 mi | -0.43 | 6 kt | -0.20 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 1 | 60 mi | -1.02 | 6 kt | -0.20 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 1 | 68 mi | -1.29 | 5 kt | +0.00 |
| HMON | 24 h | 1 | 26 mi | +0.14 | 4 kt | +0.20 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 1 | 66 mi | -1.22 | 0 kt | +1.00 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 1 | 30 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 1 | 42 mi | -0.43 | 5 kt | +0.00 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.