Dolly
AL042026 · 2026 · Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026. 4148 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 5 | 67 mi | -0.03 | 4 kt | +0.10 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 4 | 96 mi | -1.20 | 1 kt | +0.80 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 1 | 162 mi | -1.66 | 0 kt | +1.00 |
| GFS | 24 h | 5 | 47 mi | +0.27 | 5 kt | -0.20 |
| GFS | 48 h | 4 | 79 mi | -0.82 | 4 kt | +0.30 |
| GFS | 72 h | 1 | 158 mi | -1.61 | 2 kt | +0.60 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 3 | 49 mi | +0.26 | 3 kt | +0.40 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 2 | 74 mi | -0.51 | 0 kt | +0.93 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 1 | 113 mi | -0.85 | 3 kt | +0.40 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 5 | 46 mi | +0.28 | 5 kt | -0.25 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 4 | 52 mi | -0.19 | 9 kt | -0.80 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 1 | 90 mi | -0.48 | 9 kt | -0.80 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 5 | 44 mi | +0.32 | 4 kt | -0.05 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 4 | 47 mi | -0.07 | 8 kt | -0.50 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 1 | 119 mi | -0.96 | 8 kt | -0.60 |
| HMON | 24 h | 5 | 69 mi | -0.07 | 4 kt | +0.00 |
| HMON | 48 h | 4 | 129 mi | -1.95 | 10 kt | -0.95 |
| HMON | 72 h | 1 | 157 mi | -1.58 | 2 kt | +0.60 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 5 | 83 mi | -0.28 | 8 kt | -0.95 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 4 | 133 mi | -2.05 | 10 kt | -0.95 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 1 | 237 mi | -2.90 | 23 kt | -3.60 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 5 | 93 mi | -0.44 | 6 kt | -0.60 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 3 | 119 mi | -1.82 | 4 kt | +0.13 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 5 | 65 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 4 | 44 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 1 | 61 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 3 | 40 mi | +0.39 | 4 kt | +0.27 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 2 | 104 mi | -1.13 | 2 kt | +0.80 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 1 | 215 mi | -2.54 | 4 kt | +0.20 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.