Edouard
AL052026 · 2026 · Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026. 1400 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 8 | 45 mi | -1.37 | 14 kt | -10.00 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 2 | 111 mi | -1.16 | 10 kt | -3.20 |
| GFS | 24 h | 8 | 40 mi | -1.13 | 9 kt | -5.90 |
| GFS | 48 h | 2 | 99 mi | -0.93 | 6 kt | -1.20 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 4 | 36 mi | -0.78 | 17 kt | -12.40 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 1 | 55 mi | -0.31 | 18 kt | -2.60 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 5 | 52 mi | -2.51 | 6 kt | -5.00 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 2 | 82 mi | -0.60 | 4 kt | -0.40 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 5 | 47 mi | -2.12 | 10 kt | -8.60 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 2 | 78 mi | -0.53 | 4 kt | -0.40 |
| HMON | 24 h | 5 | 42 mi | -1.84 | 17 kt | -15.60 |
| HMON | 48 h | 2 | 79 mi | -0.54 | 6 kt | -1.20 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 5 | 35 mi | -1.36 | 9 kt | -8.20 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 2 | 93 mi | -0.82 | 5 kt | -1.00 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 6 | 47 mi | -1.51 | 18 kt | -20.60 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 2 | 88 mi | -0.72 | 6 kt | -1.60 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 8 | 19 mi | — | 1 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 2 | 51 mi | — | 2 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 4 | 24 mi | -0.18 | 17 kt | -12.60 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 1 | 60 mi | -0.42 | 14 kt | -1.80 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.