Fay
AL062026 · 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026. 6127 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 27 | 28 mi | +0.05 | 11 kt | -0.39 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 23 | 48 mi | -0.01 | 8 kt | -0.52 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 17 | 77 mi | -0.33 | 12 kt | -0.10 |
| GFS | 24 h | 27 | 27 mi | +0.06 | 12 kt | -0.52 |
| GFS | 48 h | 23 | 46 mi | +0.02 | 9 kt | -0.66 |
| GFS | 72 h | 17 | 65 mi | -0.13 | 11 kt | -0.03 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 13 | 29 mi | -0.02 | 10 kt | -0.24 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 11 | 61 mi | -0.40 | 7 kt | -0.27 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 8 | 98 mi | -0.80 | 11 kt | +0.03 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 26 | 24 mi | +0.16 | 10 kt | -0.28 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 22 | 45 mi | +0.03 | 9 kt | -0.97 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 16 | 82 mi | -0.50 | 6 kt | +0.40 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 26 | 26 mi | +0.10 | 10 kt | -0.31 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 22 | 41 mi | +0.11 | 8 kt | -0.58 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 16 | 66 mi | -0.19 | 7 kt | +0.33 |
| HMON | 24 h | 9 | 29 mi | -0.18 | 7 kt | +0.32 |
| HMON | 48 h | 9 | 41 mi | -0.88 | 4 kt | -0.56 |
| HMON | 72 h | 9 | 49 mi | -0.62 | 5 kt | +0.28 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 9 | 23 mi | +0.09 | 10 kt | +0.01 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 9 | 35 mi | -0.60 | 5 kt | -0.80 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 9 | 61 mi | -1.01 | 5 kt | +0.30 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 26 | 42 mi | -0.45 | 17 kt | -1.20 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 22 | 70 mi | -0.51 | 14 kt | -1.86 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 16 | 135 mi | -1.45 | 16 kt | -0.59 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 27 | 29 mi | — | 8 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 23 | 47 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 17 | 57 mi | — | 11 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 12 | 27 mi | +0.07 | 11 kt | -0.36 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 10 | 44 mi | -0.08 | 7 kt | -0.82 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 7 | 73 mi | -0.66 | 11 kt | -0.18 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.