Gonzalo
AL072026 · 2026 · Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026. 2186 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 4 | 114 mi | -2.18 | 4 kt | +0.07 |
| GFS | 24 h | 4 | 165 mi | -3.57 | 6 kt | -0.67 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 2 | 83 mi | -0.47 | 1 kt | +0.80 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 4 | 140 mi | -2.90 | 10 kt | -1.53 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 4 | 154 mi | -3.27 | 9 kt | -1.40 |
| HMON | 24 h | 4 | 125 mi | -2.48 | 12 kt | -2.33 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 4 | 157 mi | -3.35 | 10 kt | -1.80 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 4 | 87 mi | -1.41 | 8 kt | -1.00 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 4 | 36 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 2 | 122 mi | -1.16 | 5 kt | +0.00 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.