Moke
CP022026 · 2026 · Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026. 4551 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 16 | 45 mi | -0.60 | 7 kt | -0.67 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 12 | 62 mi | +0.08 | 9 kt | -0.22 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 8 | 88 mi | +0.11 | 6 kt | +0.45 |
| GFS | 24 h | 16 | 48 mi | -0.69 | 7 kt | -0.70 |
| GFS | 48 h | 12 | 42 mi | +0.38 | 10 kt | -0.29 |
| GFS | 72 h | 8 | 59 mi | +0.40 | 7 kt | +0.44 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 8 | 48 mi | -0.78 | 9 kt | -0.97 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 6 | 66 mi | +0.03 | 10 kt | -0.55 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 4 | 71 mi | +0.27 | 8 kt | +0.40 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 16 | 62 mi | -1.22 | 7 kt | -0.50 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 12 | 99 mi | -0.47 | 8 kt | -0.07 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 8 | 136 mi | -0.39 | 9 kt | +0.23 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 16 | 57 mi | -1.01 | 6 kt | -0.33 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 12 | 84 mi | -0.24 | 10 kt | -0.38 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 8 | 120 mi | -0.22 | 8 kt | +0.32 |
| HMON | 24 h | 16 | 57 mi | -1.01 | 6 kt | -0.33 |
| HMON | 48 h | 12 | 71 mi | -0.05 | 6 kt | +0.13 |
| HMON | 72 h | 8 | 113 mi | -0.15 | 7 kt | +0.40 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 16 | 53 mi | -0.88 | 5 kt | -0.14 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 12 | 62 mi | +0.08 | 6 kt | +0.27 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 8 | 100 mi | -0.02 | 8 kt | +0.34 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 16 | 52 mi | -0.85 | 10 kt | -1.29 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 12 | 76 mi | -0.13 | 8 kt | -0.09 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 8 | 93 mi | +0.05 | 6 kt | +0.52 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 16 | 28 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 12 | 67 mi | — | 8 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 8 | 98 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 8 | 54 mi | -0.98 | 9 kt | -0.97 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 6 | 105 mi | -0.54 | 12 kt | -0.77 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 4 | 146 mi | -0.51 | 8 kt | +0.40 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.