Amanda
EP012026 · 2026 · May 31, 2026 – Jun 8, 2026. 5731 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 18 | 27 mi | -0.26 | 5 kt | -0.46 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 14 | 43 mi | -0.53 | 6 kt | +0.04 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 10 | 62 mi | -0.33 | 5 kt | +0.05 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 2 | 161 mi | -0.21 | 2 kt | +0.20 |
| GFS | 24 h | 18 | 28 mi | -0.29 | 4 kt | -0.02 |
| GFS | 48 h | 14 | 46 mi | -0.67 | 3 kt | +0.45 |
| GFS | 72 h | 10 | 78 mi | -0.66 | 3 kt | +0.42 |
| GFS | 120 h | 2 | 265 mi | -1.01 | 4 kt | -0.40 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 9 | 34 mi | -0.86 | 8 kt | -1.50 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 7 | 66 mi | -1.08 | 9 kt | -0.55 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 5 | 93 mi | -0.92 | 7 kt | -0.44 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 1 | 44 mi | +0.72 | 1 kt | +0.80 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 18 | 41 mi | -0.93 | 2 kt | +0.38 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 14 | 49 mi | -0.76 | 4 kt | +0.36 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 10 | 58 mi | -0.23 | 5 kt | +0.15 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 2 | 141 mi | -0.06 | 7 kt | -1.80 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 18 | 39 mi | -0.83 | 5 kt | -0.26 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 14 | 48 mi | -0.73 | 4 kt | +0.35 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 10 | 49 mi | -0.05 | 3 kt | +0.42 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 2 | 140 mi | -0.06 | 0 kt | +0.80 |
| HMON | 24 h | 18 | 36 mi | -0.69 | 3 kt | +0.26 |
| HMON | 48 h | 14 | 62 mi | -1.22 | 4 kt | +0.29 |
| HMON | 72 h | 10 | 73 mi | -0.55 | 4 kt | +0.33 |
| HMON | 120 h | 2 | 145 mi | -0.09 | 0 kt | +0.80 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 18 | 30 mi | -0.41 | 3 kt | +0.23 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 14 | 36 mi | -0.30 | 4 kt | +0.42 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 10 | 61 mi | -0.30 | 4 kt | +0.27 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 2 | 120 mi | +0.09 | 2 kt | +0.20 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 18 | 51 mi | -1.37 | 10 kt | -1.80 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 14 | 120 mi | -3.33 | 10 kt | -0.58 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 10 | 179 mi | -2.83 | 7 kt | -0.22 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 2 | 457 mi | -2.45 | 22 kt | -8.00 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 18 | 21 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 14 | 28 mi | — | 6 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 10 | 47 mi | — | 6 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 2 | 132 mi | — | 2 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 9 | 22 mi | -0.17 | 6 kt | -0.77 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 7 | 40 mi | -0.28 | 7 kt | -0.27 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 5 | 54 mi | -0.12 | 7 kt | -0.36 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 1 | 55 mi | +0.64 | 1 kt | +0.80 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.