Douglas
EP042026 · 2026 · Jun 28, 2026 – Jul 3, 2026. 2786 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 5 | 49 mi | -1.17 | 6 kt | -2.00 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 1 | 133 mi | -1.55 | 12 kt | -0.20 |
| GFS | 24 h | 5 | 64 mi | -1.83 | 5 kt | -1.50 |
| GFS | 48 h | 1 | 178 mi | -2.40 | 12 kt | -0.20 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 2 | 68 mi | -1.61 | 6 kt | — |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 5 | 71 mi | -2.14 | 5 kt | -1.30 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 1 | 119 mi | -1.29 | 6 kt | +0.40 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 5 | 68 mi | -2.00 | 4 kt | -1.20 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 1 | 118 mi | -1.27 | 10 kt | +0.00 |
| HMON | 24 h | 5 | 54 mi | -1.38 | 4 kt | -0.90 |
| HMON | 48 h | 1 | 115 mi | -1.19 | 13 kt | -0.30 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 5 | 57 mi | -1.53 | 3 kt | -0.30 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 1 | 65 mi | -0.25 | 11 kt | -0.10 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 5 | 88 mi | -2.88 | 7 kt | -2.70 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 1 | 152 mi | -1.91 | 12 kt | -0.20 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 5 | 23 mi | — | 2 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 1 | 52 mi | — | 10 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 2 | 40 mi | -0.53 | 6 kt | — |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.