Elida
EP052026 · 2026 · Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 20, 2026. 5557 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 20 | 39 mi | -0.19 | 9 kt | -0.56 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 16 | 58 mi | -0.39 | 5 kt | +0.59 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 12 | 69 mi | -0.67 | 4 kt | +0.67 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 4 | 93 mi | -0.03 | 7 kt | -0.35 |
| GFS | 24 h | 20 | 42 mi | -0.28 | 6 kt | -0.14 |
| GFS | 48 h | 16 | 71 mi | -0.70 | 5 kt | +0.56 |
| GFS | 72 h | 12 | 84 mi | -1.03 | 6 kt | +0.56 |
| GFS | 120 h | 4 | 64 mi | +0.29 | 2 kt | +0.55 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 10 | 50 mi | -0.67 | 12 kt | -1.32 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 8 | 100 mi | -1.47 | 12 kt | -0.18 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 6 | 117 mi | -1.84 | 12 kt | +0.01 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 2 | 123 mi | -0.19 | 12 kt | -1.40 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 19 | 42 mi | -0.29 | 5 kt | +0.05 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 15 | 74 mi | -0.73 | 7 kt | +0.39 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 11 | 76 mi | -0.83 | 6 kt | +0.51 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 3 | 132 mi | -0.52 | 5 kt | +0.00 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 20 | 39 mi | -0.18 | 6 kt | -0.09 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 16 | 79 mi | -0.88 | 4 kt | +0.68 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 12 | 86 mi | -1.08 | 4 kt | +0.70 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 4 | 114 mi | -0.27 | 4 kt | +0.20 |
| HMON | 24 h | 20 | 34 mi | -0.03 | 6 kt | -0.02 |
| HMON | 48 h | 16 | 66 mi | -0.56 | 8 kt | +0.37 |
| HMON | 72 h | 12 | 103 mi | -1.48 | 3 kt | +0.75 |
| HMON | 120 h | 4 | 121 mi | -0.34 | 6 kt | -0.25 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 19 | 41 mi | -0.25 | 5 kt | +0.01 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 15 | 63 mi | -0.46 | 5 kt | +0.58 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 11 | 90 mi | -1.17 | 4 kt | +0.69 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 3 | 99 mi | -0.14 | 2 kt | +0.67 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 17 | 91 mi | -1.59 | 18 kt | -2.11 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 15 | 181 mi | -3.14 | 16 kt | -0.30 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 11 | 238 mi | -4.52 | 14 kt | -0.01 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 4 | 462 mi | -4.14 | 15 kt | -2.05 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 20 | 33 mi | — | 6 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 16 | 42 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 12 | 42 mi | — | 13 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 4 | 90 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 10 | 52 mi | -0.75 | 12 kt | -1.46 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 8 | 107 mi | -1.65 | 11 kt | -0.04 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 6 | 153 mi | -2.70 | 8 kt | +0.33 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 2 | 317 mi | -2.07 | 10 kt | -1.00 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.