Fausto
EP062026 · 2026 · Jul 16, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026. 9925 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 39 | 36 mi | -0.17 | 16 kt | -1.37 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 35 | 55 mi | -0.61 | 16 kt | -0.32 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 31 | 70 mi | -0.89 | 16 kt | -0.17 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 23 | 129 mi | -0.82 | 20 kt | -1.31 |
| GFS | 24 h | 39 | 35 mi | -0.13 | 12 kt | -0.80 |
| GFS | 48 h | 35 | 54 mi | -0.56 | 14 kt | -0.13 |
| GFS | 72 h | 31 | 76 mi | -1.05 | 14 kt | -0.02 |
| GFS | 120 h | 23 | 180 mi | -1.54 | 18 kt | -1.04 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 20 | 41 mi | -0.30 | 25 kt | -2.56 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 18 | 57 mi | -0.68 | 27 kt | -1.26 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 16 | 56 mi | -0.50 | 30 kt | -1.11 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 11 | 82 mi | -0.37 | 36 kt | -2.62 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 39 | 34 mi | -0.09 | 8 kt | -0.19 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 35 | 44 mi | -0.26 | 10 kt | +0.14 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 31 | 69 mi | -0.85 | 11 kt | +0.16 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 23 | 93 mi | -0.31 | 15 kt | -0.69 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 39 | 35 mi | -0.13 | 10 kt | -0.42 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 35 | 47 mi | -0.37 | 11 kt | +0.07 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 31 | 61 mi | -0.63 | 12 kt | +0.14 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 23 | 104 mi | -0.46 | 14 kt | -0.66 |
| HMON | 24 h | 39 | 34 mi | -0.10 | 12 kt | -0.71 |
| HMON | 48 h | 35 | 66 mi | -0.93 | 12 kt | +0.00 |
| HMON | 72 h | 31 | 88 mi | -1.36 | 13 kt | +0.02 |
| HMON | 120 h | 23 | 134 mi | -0.89 | 18 kt | -1.02 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 39 | 35 mi | -0.14 | 13 kt | -0.95 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 35 | 51 mi | -0.47 | 13 kt | -0.05 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 31 | 75 mi | -1.01 | 15 kt | -0.10 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 23 | 99 mi | -0.40 | 17 kt | -0.98 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 36 | 53 mi | -0.80 | 24 kt | -2.29 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 32 | 90 mi | -1.55 | 16 kt | -0.31 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 28 | 128 mi | -2.27 | 14 kt | -0.12 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 20 | 314 mi | -3.10 | 21 kt | -1.51 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 39 | 31 mi | — | 7 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 35 | 34 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 31 | 37 mi | — | 14 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 23 | 71 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 20 | 26 mi | +0.16 | 22 kt | -2.09 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 18 | 55 mi | -0.60 | 25 kt | -1.06 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 16 | 70 mi | -0.87 | 28 kt | -1.03 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 12 | 114 mi | -0.60 | 35 kt | -2.65 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.