Events

Genevieve

EP072026 · 2026 · Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 6, 2026. 9076 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.

Track and intensity

Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.

SourceLeadCasesTrackTrack skillIntensityIntensity skill
GEFS mean 24 h 37 27 mi -0.05 23 kt -1.92
GEFS mean 48 h 37 46 mi -0.11 21 kt -1.51
GEFS mean 72 h 37 67 mi -0.21 15 kt -2.27
GEFS mean 120 h 30 147 mi -0.16 6 kt -0.43
GFS 24 h 37 29 mi -0.15 15 kt -0.96
GFS 48 h 37 50 mi -0.21 15 kt -0.77
GFS 72 h 37 78 mi -0.41 10 kt -1.14
GFS 120 h 30 179 mi -0.41 4 kt +0.03
Canadian GEM 24 h 19 32 mi -0.30 31 kt -2.69
Canadian GEM 48 h 19 49 mi -0.24 32 kt -2.64
Canadian GEM 72 h 19 68 mi -0.27 26 kt -4.11
Canadian GEM 120 h 15 112 mi +0.04 15 kt -2.26
HAFS-A 24 h 37 26 mi -0.01 11 kt -0.39
HAFS-A 48 h 37 32 mi +0.23 10 kt -0.14
HAFS-A 72 h 37 70 mi -0.27 9 kt -0.94
HAFS-A 120 h 30 174 mi -0.38 5 kt -0.35
HAFS-B 24 h 37 29 mi -0.12 10 kt -0.36
HAFS-B 48 h 37 35 mi +0.14 10 kt -0.23
HAFS-B 72 h 37 68 mi -0.23 8 kt -0.63
HAFS-B 120 h 30 155 mi -0.22 4 kt -0.12
HMON 24 h 37 25 mi +0.03 8 kt -0.09
HMON 48 h 37 47 mi -0.14 11 kt -0.34
HMON 72 h 37 67 mi -0.22 7 kt -0.42
HMON 120 h 30 167 mi -0.32 6 kt -0.52
HWRF 24 h 37 27 mi -0.07 12 kt -0.55
HWRF 48 h 37 42 mi -0.02 11 kt -0.29
HWRF 72 h 37 64 mi -0.16 8 kt -0.73
HWRF 120 h 30 135 mi -0.06 6 kt -0.38
NAVGEM 24 h 35 64 mi -1.48 23 kt -1.94
NAVGEM 48 h 35 112 mi -1.65 14 kt -0.89
NAVGEM 72 h 34 149 mi -1.64 9 kt -1.42
NAVGEM 120 h 28 193 mi -0.45 11 kt -2.17
NHC official 24 h 38 25 mi — 8 kt —
NHC official 48 h 38 40 mi — 8 kt —
NHC official 72 h 38 56 mi — 5 kt —
NHC official 120 h 30 127 mi — 4 kt —
UKMET 24 h 19 40 mi -0.62 26 kt -2.06
UKMET 48 h 19 65 mi -0.64 26 kt -2.02
UKMET 72 h 19 91 mi -0.68 22 kt -3.42
UKMET 120 h 15 111 mi +0.05 10 kt -1.21

Landfall

Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.

No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.

Local impact in a market

Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.

No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.