Hernan
EP082026 · 2026 · Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 15, 2026. 2665 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 8 | 51 mi | +0.23 | 6 kt | -7.80 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 4 | 60 mi | -0.25 | 6 kt | -1.40 |
| GFS | 24 h | 8 | 55 mi | +0.16 | 5 kt | -7.40 |
| GFS | 48 h | 4 | 37 mi | +0.23 | 6 kt | -1.60 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 4 | 76 mi | -0.00 | 8 kt | — |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 2 | 69 mi | -0.26 | 10 kt | -2.80 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 8 | 69 mi | -0.06 | 5 kt | -7.00 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 4 | 101 mi | -1.11 | 5 kt | -1.00 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 8 | 72 mi | -0.09 | 7 kt | -9.60 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 4 | 116 mi | -1.42 | 5 kt | -1.00 |
| HMON | 24 h | 8 | 51 mi | +0.23 | 5 kt | -6.80 |
| HMON | 48 h | 4 | 68 mi | -0.42 | 6 kt | -1.20 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 8 | 54 mi | +0.17 | 5 kt | -7.40 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 4 | 89 mi | -0.86 | 4 kt | -0.40 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 8 | 72 mi | -0.09 | 12 kt | -17.80 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 4 | 204 mi | -3.27 | 10 kt | -3.10 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 8 | 66 mi | — | 1 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 4 | 48 mi | — | 2 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 4 | 61 mi | +0.20 | 7 kt | — |
| UKMET | 48 h | 2 | 117 mi | -1.13 | 8 kt | -2.20 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.