Iselle
EP092026 · 2026 · Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026. 3562 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 11 | 36 mi | -0.06 | 6 kt | -0.34 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 7 | 49 mi | -0.41 | 3 kt | +0.67 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 3 | 66 mi | -1.37 | 7 kt | +0.51 |
| GFS | 24 h | 11 | 45 mi | -0.30 | 4 kt | +0.12 |
| GFS | 48 h | 7 | 75 mi | -1.16 | 7 kt | +0.33 |
| GFS | 72 h | 3 | 127 mi | -3.56 | 20 kt | -0.31 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 6 | 36 mi | -0.10 | 10 kt | -1.44 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 4 | 29 mi | +0.11 | 8 kt | +0.22 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 2 | 39 mi | -0.06 | 8 kt | +0.51 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 11 | 33 mi | +0.04 | 4 kt | +0.08 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 7 | 23 mi | +0.32 | 6 kt | +0.36 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 3 | 56 mi | -1.03 | 7 kt | +0.53 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 11 | 32 mi | +0.07 | 6 kt | -0.34 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 7 | 33 mi | +0.05 | 8 kt | +0.23 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 3 | 55 mi | -0.96 | 11 kt | +0.29 |
| HMON | 24 h | 11 | 57 mi | -0.65 | 5 kt | -0.04 |
| HMON | 48 h | 7 | 78 mi | -1.26 | 4 kt | +0.60 |
| HMON | 72 h | 3 | 65 mi | -1.33 | 11 kt | +0.29 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 11 | 52 mi | -0.50 | 5 kt | -0.04 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 7 | 74 mi | -1.12 | 4 kt | +0.63 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 3 | 51 mi | -0.85 | 13 kt | +0.11 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 11 | 85 mi | -1.49 | 18 kt | -3.02 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 7 | 137 mi | -2.94 | 7 kt | +0.31 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 3 | 194 mi | -5.96 | 11 kt | +0.24 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 11 | 34 mi | — | 5 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 7 | 35 mi | — | 10 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 3 | 28 mi | — | 15 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 6 | 77 mi | -1.34 | 8 kt | -0.96 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 4 | 142 mi | -3.40 | 11 kt | -0.07 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 2 | 181 mi | -3.89 | 11 kt | +0.37 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.