Karina
EP112026 · 2026 · Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026. 10096 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 38 | 27 mi | -0.20 | 31 kt | -2.18 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 34 | 48 mi | -1.16 | 35 kt | -1.87 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 30 | 82 mi | -0.89 | 38 kt | -2.43 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 22 | 219 mi | -0.46 | 35 kt | -0.54 |
| GFS | 24 h | 38 | 25 mi | -0.10 | 24 kt | -1.45 |
| GFS | 48 h | 34 | 44 mi | -0.98 | 27 kt | -1.22 |
| GFS | 72 h | 30 | 78 mi | -0.80 | 29 kt | -1.59 |
| GFS | 120 h | 22 | 194 mi | -0.29 | 28 kt | -0.21 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 19 | 32 mi | -0.43 | 44 kt | -3.37 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 17 | 57 mi | -1.42 | 47 kt | -2.72 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 15 | 90 mi | -1.15 | 50 kt | -3.16 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 11 | 201 mi | -0.32 | 46 kt | -1.02 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 38 | 33 mi | -0.44 | 16 kt | -0.67 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 34 | 57 mi | -1.57 | 21 kt | -0.74 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 30 | 95 mi | -1.18 | 25 kt | -1.24 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 22 | 250 mi | -0.67 | 28 kt | -0.21 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 38 | 33 mi | -0.45 | 15 kt | -0.58 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 34 | 50 mi | -1.26 | 22 kt | -0.80 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 30 | 86 mi | -0.98 | 28 kt | -1.52 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 22 | 236 mi | -0.57 | 29 kt | -0.27 |
| HMON | 24 h | 38 | 34 mi | -0.49 | 20 kt | -1.04 |
| HMON | 48 h | 34 | 47 mi | -1.14 | 30 kt | -1.48 |
| HMON | 72 h | 30 | 93 mi | -1.13 | 34 kt | -2.08 |
| HMON | 120 h | 22 | 261 mi | -0.74 | 35 kt | -0.53 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 38 | 34 mi | -0.50 | 22 kt | -1.30 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 34 | 57 mi | -1.59 | 26 kt | -1.15 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 30 | 94 mi | -1.16 | 28 kt | -1.49 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 22 | 226 mi | -0.50 | 32 kt | -0.40 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 37 | 58 mi | -1.53 | 45 kt | -3.82 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 33 | 90 mi | -3.05 | 42 kt | -2.49 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 29 | 150 mi | -2.37 | 37 kt | -2.28 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 21 | 360 mi | -1.36 | 33 kt | -0.42 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 38 | 23 mi | — | 10 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 34 | 22 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 30 | 43 mi | — | 11 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 22 | 150 mi | — | 23 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 19 | 30 mi | -0.35 | 36 kt | -2.58 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 17 | 62 mi | -1.62 | 41 kt | -2.26 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 15 | 101 mi | -1.41 | 46 kt | -2.87 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 11 | 202 mi | -0.33 | 40 kt | -0.74 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.