Lowell
EP122026 · 2026 · Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026. 13928 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 54 | 50 mi | -0.63 | 31 kt | -2.45 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 50 | 105 mi | -0.68 | 33 kt | -1.72 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 46 | 169 mi | -0.62 | 36 kt | -1.21 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 38 | 284 mi | -0.65 | 46 kt | -1.24 |
| GFS | 24 h | 54 | 47 mi | -0.53 | 21 kt | -1.42 |
| GFS | 48 h | 50 | 92 mi | -0.47 | 21 kt | -0.73 |
| GFS | 72 h | 46 | 142 mi | -0.36 | 22 kt | -0.34 |
| GFS | 120 h | 38 | 253 mi | -0.47 | 30 kt | -0.48 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 27 | 55 mi | -0.81 | 40 kt | -3.47 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 25 | 122 mi | -0.97 | 44 kt | -2.54 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 23 | 203 mi | -0.98 | 48 kt | -2.03 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 19 | 415 mi | -1.46 | 57 kt | -1.85 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 54 | 47 mi | -0.51 | 9 kt | -0.06 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 50 | 88 mi | -0.42 | 10 kt | +0.17 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 46 | 132 mi | -0.27 | 10 kt | +0.38 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 38 | 228 mi | -0.33 | 17 kt | +0.16 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 54 | 44 mi | -0.44 | 10 kt | -0.08 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 50 | 84 mi | -0.34 | 11 kt | +0.09 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 46 | 131 mi | -0.26 | 16 kt | +0.03 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 38 | 215 mi | -0.25 | 16 kt | +0.20 |
| HMON | 24 h | 54 | 46 mi | -0.48 | 10 kt | -0.16 |
| HMON | 48 h | 50 | 96 mi | -0.53 | 14 kt | -0.14 |
| HMON | 72 h | 46 | 149 mi | -0.43 | 18 kt | -0.09 |
| HMON | 120 h | 38 | 232 mi | -0.35 | 19 kt | +0.08 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 54 | 48 mi | -0.54 | 11 kt | -0.20 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 50 | 94 mi | -0.50 | 13 kt | -0.09 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 46 | 152 mi | -0.46 | 16 kt | +0.00 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 38 | 274 mi | -0.59 | 24 kt | -0.14 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 50 | 54 mi | -0.70 | 30 kt | -2.45 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 48 | 119 mi | -0.94 | 28 kt | -1.29 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 44 | 222 mi | -1.18 | 31 kt | -0.86 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 35 | 474 mi | -1.90 | 37 kt | -0.73 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 54 | 31 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 50 | 62 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 46 | 104 mi | — | 16 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 38 | 172 mi | — | 21 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 27 | 34 mi | -0.11 | 32 kt | -2.61 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 25 | 60 mi | +0.03 | 35 kt | -1.84 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 23 | 93 mi | +0.10 | 38 kt | -1.39 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 19 | 176 mi | -0.04 | 46 kt | -1.32 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.