Marie
EP132026 · 2026 · Aug 29, 2026 – Sep 8, 2026. 7027 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 26 | 26 mi | -0.31 | 14 kt | -2.34 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 22 | 36 mi | -0.46 | 12 kt | -2.41 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 18 | 59 mi | -0.76 | 11 kt | -1.89 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 10 | 112 mi | -0.10 | 9 kt | +0.03 |
| GFS | 24 h | 26 | 28 mi | -0.44 | 9 kt | -1.17 |
| GFS | 48 h | 22 | 37 mi | -0.50 | 6 kt | -0.91 |
| GFS | 72 h | 18 | 68 mi | -1.02 | 8 kt | -0.97 |
| GFS | 120 h | 10 | 163 mi | -0.61 | 9 kt | +0.03 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 13 | 29 mi | -0.74 | 26 kt | -6.44 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 11 | 45 mi | -1.21 | 27 kt | -7.54 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 9 | 56 mi | -0.61 | 26 kt | -5.66 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 5 | 109 mi | +0.01 | 17 kt | -0.68 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 26 | 27 mi | -0.40 | 12 kt | -1.99 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 22 | 44 mi | -0.79 | 12 kt | -2.41 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 18 | 83 mi | -1.46 | 10 kt | -1.59 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 10 | 175 mi | -0.73 | 13 kt | -0.44 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 26 | 26 mi | -0.31 | 10 kt | -1.56 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 22 | 52 mi | -1.11 | 14 kt | -3.12 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 18 | 95 mi | -1.82 | 13 kt | -2.37 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 10 | 206 mi | -1.03 | 13 kt | -0.42 |
| HMON | 24 h | 24 | 26 mi | -0.41 | 13 kt | -2.21 |
| HMON | 48 h | 20 | 39 mi | -0.73 | 17 kt | -3.63 |
| HMON | 72 h | 16 | 74 mi | -1.22 | 15 kt | -2.72 |
| HMON | 120 h | 8 | 116 mi | -0.05 | 12 kt | -0.31 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 24 | 22 mi | -0.19 | 13 kt | -2.10 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 20 | 39 mi | -0.75 | 14 kt | -2.63 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 16 | 42 mi | -0.25 | 12 kt | -1.83 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 8 | 171 mi | -0.55 | 7 kt | +0.23 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 25 | 43 mi | -1.19 | 25 kt | -4.92 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 21 | 74 mi | -2.06 | 16 kt | -3.52 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 17 | 106 mi | -2.22 | 12 kt | -1.89 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 9 | 205 mi | -0.96 | 11 kt | -0.16 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 26 | 20 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 22 | 25 mi | — | 3 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 18 | 34 mi | — | 4 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 10 | 101 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 13 | 30 mi | -0.80 | 23 kt | -5.69 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 11 | 53 mi | -1.62 | 24 kt | -6.51 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 9 | 109 mi | -2.09 | 22 kt | -4.66 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 5 | 298 mi | -1.72 | 18 kt | -0.82 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.