Norbert
EP142026 · 2026 · Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026. 4851 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 20 | 32 mi | -0.40 | 10 kt | -0.41 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 16 | 64 mi | -0.41 | 11 kt | +0.05 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 12 | 85 mi | +0.16 | 8 kt | +0.65 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 4 | 106 mi | +0.63 | 2 kt | +0.96 |
| GFS | 24 h | 20 | 38 mi | -0.67 | 7 kt | -0.04 |
| GFS | 48 h | 16 | 79 mi | -0.72 | 7 kt | +0.37 |
| GFS | 72 h | 12 | 123 mi | -0.22 | 4 kt | +0.79 |
| GFS | 120 h | 4 | 242 mi | +0.16 | 5 kt | +0.87 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 10 | 38 mi | -0.64 | 12 kt | -0.92 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 8 | 61 mi | -0.44 | 12 kt | -0.02 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 6 | 144 mi | -0.49 | 8 kt | +0.62 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 2 | 382 mi | -0.38 | 4 kt | +0.90 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 20 | 39 mi | -0.72 | 4 kt | +0.36 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 16 | 69 mi | -0.51 | 11 kt | +0.07 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 12 | 108 mi | -0.07 | 13 kt | +0.42 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 4 | 175 mi | +0.39 | 22 kt | +0.45 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 20 | 45 mi | -0.95 | 5 kt | +0.22 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 16 | 70 mi | -0.54 | 6 kt | +0.45 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 12 | 104 mi | -0.02 | 6 kt | +0.72 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 4 | 158 mi | +0.45 | 7 kt | +0.82 |
| HMON | 24 h | 20 | 36 mi | -0.57 | 4 kt | +0.36 |
| HMON | 48 h | 16 | 79 mi | -0.73 | 5 kt | +0.56 |
| HMON | 72 h | 12 | 131 mi | -0.29 | 6 kt | +0.73 |
| HMON | 120 h | 4 | 287 mi | -0.00 | 14 kt | +0.66 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 20 | 41 mi | -0.80 | 6 kt | +0.17 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 16 | 55 mi | -0.21 | 6 kt | +0.52 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 12 | 84 mi | +0.17 | 11 kt | +0.49 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 4 | 220 mi | +0.23 | 14 kt | +0.64 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 18 | 63 mi | -1.94 | 18 kt | -1.77 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 14 | 134 mi | -2.41 | 16 kt | -0.45 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 10 | 313 mi | -2.50 | 7 kt | +0.69 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 4 | 477 mi | -0.66 | 19 kt | +0.53 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 20 | 23 mi | — | 7 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 16 | 46 mi | — | 12 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 12 | 101 mi | — | 22 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 4 | 287 mi | — | 40 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 10 | 42 mi | -0.78 | 12 kt | -0.85 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 8 | 71 mi | -0.68 | 11 kt | +0.07 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 6 | 92 mi | +0.04 | 8 kt | +0.62 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 2 | 62 mi | +0.78 | 4 kt | +0.91 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.