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EP152026 · 2026 · Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026. 11456 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 24 | 44 mi | -0.36 | 18 kt | -1.88 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 19 | 67 mi | -0.18 | 21 kt | -1.17 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 15 | 77 mi | +0.06 | 17 kt | -0.84 |
| GFS | 24 h | 24 | 47 mi | -0.44 | 14 kt | -1.18 |
| GFS | 48 h | 19 | 71 mi | -0.25 | 16 kt | -0.67 |
| GFS | 72 h | 15 | 96 mi | -0.18 | 10 kt | -0.08 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 11 | 45 mi | -0.36 | 21 kt | -2.09 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 9 | 101 mi | -0.84 | 26 kt | -1.31 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 7 | 150 mi | -0.96 | 20 kt | -0.83 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 24 | 60 mi | -0.84 | 9 kt | -0.45 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 19 | 79 mi | -0.39 | 13 kt | -0.33 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 15 | 109 mi | -0.34 | 11 kt | -0.19 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 24 | 55 mi | -0.67 | 8 kt | -0.31 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 19 | 70 mi | -0.24 | 12 kt | -0.22 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 15 | 86 mi | -0.06 | 9 kt | +0.06 |
| HMON | 24 h | 24 | 48 mi | -0.48 | 9 kt | -0.37 |
| HMON | 48 h | 19 | 76 mi | -0.33 | 12 kt | -0.28 |
| HMON | 72 h | 15 | 114 mi | -0.40 | 12 kt | -0.32 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 23 | 49 mi | -0.51 | 10 kt | -0.59 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 19 | 55 mi | +0.03 | 12 kt | -0.31 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 15 | 82 mi | -0.01 | 11 kt | -0.22 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 22 | 118 mi | -2.63 | 27 kt | -2.99 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 18 | 202 mi | -2.46 | 25 kt | -1.61 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 14 | 264 mi | -2.16 | 20 kt | -1.36 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 24 | 33 mi | — | 6 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 19 | 57 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 15 | 81 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 11 | 33 mi | +0.01 | 19 kt | -1.85 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 9 | 65 mi | -0.19 | 22 kt | -1.00 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 7 | 127 mi | -0.66 | 18 kt | -0.64 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.