Odalys

EP162026 · 2026 · Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026. 8204 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.

Track and intensity

Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.

Source	Lead	Cases	Track	Track skill	Intensity	Intensity skill
GEFS mean	24 h	27	45 mi	-0.26	26 kt	-1.55
GEFS mean	48 h	23	75 mi	-0.71	33 kt	-0.94
GEFS mean	72 h	19	97 mi	-1.12	39 kt	-0.67
GEFS mean	120 h	11	175 mi	-0.65	48 kt	-0.59
GFS	24 h	27	45 mi	-0.25	22 kt	-1.09
GFS	48 h	23	94 mi	-1.14	28 kt	-0.64
GFS	72 h	19	142 mi	-2.10	33 kt	-0.43
GFS	120 h	11	243 mi	-1.29	42 kt	-0.38
Canadian GEM	24 h	13	63 mi	-0.94	33 kt	-2.26
Canadian GEM	48 h	11	87 mi	-1.24	39 kt	-1.30
Canadian GEM	72 h	9	105 mi	-1.16	43 kt	-0.77
Canadian GEM	120 h	5	110 mi	-0.00	59 kt	-0.90
HAFS-A	24 h	27	39 mi	-0.08	19 kt	-0.84
HAFS-A	48 h	23	70 mi	-0.59	23 kt	-0.35
HAFS-A	72 h	19	112 mi	-1.45	30 kt	-0.29
HAFS-A	120 h	11	224 mi	-1.11	41 kt	-0.36
HAFS-B	24 h	27	40 mi	-0.10	21 kt	-0.99
HAFS-B	48 h	23	58 mi	-0.32	31 kt	-0.78
HAFS-B	72 h	19	95 mi	-1.07	39 kt	-0.67
HAFS-B	120 h	11	201 mi	-0.89	43 kt	-0.42
HMON	24 h	18	39 mi	-0.01	23 kt	-0.91
HMON	48 h	18	61 mi	-0.41	37 kt	-0.82
HMON	72 h	18	103 mi	-1.26	38 kt	-0.59
HMON	120 h	10	169 mi	-0.71	42 kt	-0.32
HWRF	24 h	18	48 mi	-0.24	24 kt	-0.98
HWRF	48 h	18	77 mi	-0.77	39 kt	-0.92
HWRF	72 h	18	111 mi	-1.42	39 kt	-0.63
HWRF	120 h	10	169 mi	-0.72	38 kt	-0.22
NAVGEM	24 h	27	66 mi	-0.84	34 kt	-2.25
NAVGEM	48 h	23	124 mi	-1.83	26 kt	-0.51
NAVGEM	72 h	19	145 mi	-2.16	15 kt	+0.37
NAVGEM	120 h	11	258 mi	-1.43	29 kt	+0.03
NHC official	24 h	27	36 mi	—	10 kt	—
NHC official	48 h	23	44 mi	—	17 kt	—
NHC official	72 h	19	46 mi	—	23 kt	—
NHC official	120 h	11	106 mi	—	30 kt	—
UKMET	24 h	12	43 mi	-0.35	34 kt	-2.37
UKMET	48 h	10	78 mi	-0.89	40 kt	-1.19
UKMET	72 h	8	138 mi	-1.66	41 kt	-0.93
UKMET	120 h	4	150 mi	-0.41	56 kt	-0.53

Landfall

Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.

No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.

Local impact in a market

Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.

No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.