Polo
EP172026 · 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026. 7950 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 25 | 27 mi | -0.12 | 64 kt | -2.71 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 21 | 33 mi | +0.20 | 66 kt | -3.35 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 17 | 37 mi | +0.29 | 66 kt | -3.43 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 9 | 119 mi | +0.12 | 64 kt | -2.85 |
| GFS | 24 h | 25 | 26 mi | -0.10 | 38 kt | -1.20 |
| GFS | 48 h | 21 | 38 mi | +0.07 | 42 kt | -1.73 |
| GFS | 72 h | 17 | 54 mi | -0.04 | 40 kt | -1.69 |
| GFS | 120 h | 9 | 144 mi | -0.06 | 42 kt | -1.52 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 12 | 32 mi | -0.21 | 75 kt | -3.64 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 10 | 57 mi | -0.28 | 75 kt | -4.98 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 8 | 103 mi | -0.94 | 73 kt | -3.70 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 4 | 210 mi | -0.58 | 68 kt | -3.93 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 25 | 39 mi | -0.63 | 28 kt | -0.60 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 21 | 62 mi | -0.50 | 25 kt | -0.63 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 17 | 57 mi | -0.09 | 27 kt | -0.77 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 9 | 68 mi | +0.50 | 35 kt | -1.09 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 25 | 36 mi | -0.49 | 24 kt | -0.38 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 21 | 56 mi | -0.37 | 24 kt | -0.57 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 17 | 66 mi | -0.27 | 32 kt | -1.11 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 9 | 101 mi | +0.26 | 41 kt | -1.43 |
| HMON | 24 h | 25 | 36 mi | -0.47 | 17 kt | +0.03 |
| HMON | 48 h | 21 | 54 mi | -0.32 | 22 kt | -0.43 |
| HMON | 72 h | 17 | 73 mi | -0.41 | 22 kt | -0.45 |
| HMON | 120 h | 9 | 91 mi | +0.33 | 44 kt | -1.65 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 25 | 37 mi | -0.55 | 20 kt | -0.17 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 21 | 63 mi | -0.52 | 25 kt | -0.62 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 17 | 79 mi | -0.52 | 24 kt | -0.63 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 9 | 132 mi | +0.03 | 25 kt | -0.49 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 25 | 47 mi | -0.95 | 48 kt | -1.77 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 21 | 69 mi | -0.67 | 44 kt | -1.91 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 17 | 110 mi | -1.12 | 42 kt | -1.82 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 9 | 381 mi | -1.80 | 53 kt | -2.19 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 25 | 24 mi | — | 17 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 21 | 41 mi | — | 15 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 17 | 52 mi | — | 15 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 9 | 136 mi | — | 17 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 11 | 72 mi | -1.68 | 68 kt | -3.29 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 9 | 81 mi | -0.74 | 71 kt | -4.32 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 7 | 110 mi | -0.98 | 63 kt | -3.63 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 2 | 270 mi | -0.80 | 50 kt | -4.00 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.