Events

Rachel

EP182026 · 2026 · Sep 25, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026. 1126 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.

Track and intensity

Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.

No lead has both a forecast and a best-track fix at the same valid time yet.

Landfall

Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.

No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.

Local impact in a market

Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. Station websites are not collected, so this card does not invent a local total.

No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.